2026 Holiday Hiring Outlook: After Lowest Season Since 2008, Will Retailers Stock Up on Workers?
Publication date: Sep 23SEASONAL HIRING ANNOUNCEMENTS REMAIN THIN AS RETAILERS WAIT AND SEE HOW CONSUMERS SPEND
Public seasonal hiring commitments from U.S. Retailers remain thin heading into the fourth quarter, with only a handful of companies publicizing 2026 headcount plans so far. Challenger predicts seasonal retail hiring will fall below last year’s level to 450,000 Retail jobs added during the fourth quarter of the year.
Retailers added 461,500 jobs in the final quarter of 2025, the smallest seasonal gain since 2008 and 15% below the 543,100 added in Q4 2024, according to the firm’s analysis of non-seasonally adjusted Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Even as consumers appear to be spending despite high prices – August retail sales jumped 1.2% and back-to-school shoppers held up – the pattern of quieter announcements suggests Retailers are again planning to lean on existing staff and on-demand pools rather than committing to large seasonal waves this early.
“The deepening pain from high energy costs may continue into the holiday season, and consumers may contract spending. That said, August retail sales jumped 1.2%, and there’s no sign of a major spending pullback. But that resilience is not translating into large, early hiring commitments from the biggest Retailers,” said Andy Challenger, workplace expert and Chief Revenue Officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
“Prices are still high, tariffs continue to work through supply chains, and Retailers are leaning on automation, existing associates, and on-demand pools before hiring net-new seasonal workers. It’s more about restocking staffing plans surgically than a return to the 900,000-plus seasonal hiring years we saw in 2020 and 2021,” he added.
Spirit Halloween announced the largest seasonal hiring push in its history with 52,000 associates to staff a record 1,575 stores across the U.S. and Canada. Michaels announced plans on September 10th to hire more than 10,000 seasonal Team Members, noting nearly half of last year’s seasonal in-store roles converted to regular positions. Bass Pro Shops and Cabela’s are holding a National Hiring Event on October 7 & 8th at locations across the U.S. and Canada. The company announced 4,000 hiring plans in 2024.
Several major Retailers that have historically issued early hiring targets have again gone quiet. Amazon has hit 250,000 seasonal hires in each of the last three years and typically announces in mid-October. Bath & Body Works has committed to 30,000+ associates in each of the last three seasons and normally announces in early September. Target has held its number of hires at 100,000 for the past several years, and Kohl’s hired roughly 90,000 for most of the past decade. So far, none have publicly disclosed 2026 headcount figures, a continuation of the trend that emerged in 2024 as Retailers shifted toward flexible, on-demand staffing models.
Preliminary figures from the BLS show Retail employed 15.47 million workers in August 2026, up by just over 63,000 jobs from a year ago. Employment typically dips in September as teens and college-aged workers return to school, then rebuilds in the final quarter.
“Consumers are stretched but they are still showing up. Back-to-school spending held up, and the August surge in retail sales tells us households are not yet in retreat,” said Challenger.
“But almost every hiring announcement we’ve seen in the last three years is smaller and more surgical than the pre-pandemic playbook. Even if the big names come in at last year’s numbers, the total will likely fall well short of the 2019–2021 peaks.”
Transportation & Warehousing
Seasonal hiring in Transportation and Warehousing followed a similar downward path. Employers in this sector added 266,500 positions in Q4 2025, down 12% from 2024 and the lowest Q4 total since 2018, when 259,500 jobs were added. Challenger forecasts a similar total in 2026 as e-commerce firms and logistics providers continue to lean on automation, robotics, flexible scheduling, and year-round staff to meet fluctuating demand. UPS, FedEx, and USPS have not yet released 2026 headcount targets; GEODIS and Radial announced modest plans last year in the 4,000–7,000 range.
“AI, robotics, and automation continue to reshape the peak-season labor profile in warehousing. The traditional seasonal spike in shipping jobs has been dulled, and every year that shift looks a little more permanent,” said Challenger.