Published September 19, 2024
Job postings for seasonal employment at U.S. employers have begun to appear online and some companies have made large-scale seasonal announcements. Inflation is cooling, as are the labor market and consumer spending, but Retailers appear to be ramping up for a strong spending season, according to global outplacement/career transition, business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
With the current softening in both the labor market and economy, Challenger predicts seasonal job gains at Retailers will fall below those of the last quarter of 2023, when Retailers added 564,200 new jobs, according to the firm’s analysis of non-seasonally adjusted data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). In the final quarter of 2024, Challenger expects Retailers will add 520,000 new jobs, more than the 509,300 added in the final quarter of 2022, but the second-lowest total since 2009.
“This prediction considers that now, job gains are falling, and consumers have tightened spending. That said, the cooling seems to be slow. Seasonal employers will add jobs, but need may fluctuate as the season progresses,” said Andrew Challenger, labor expert and Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
“One possibility is Retailers will be unable to fill positions, which has proven true in the post-pandemic years. The other is that Retailers will not have the need for so many workers, particularly if the economy cools faster and consumers decide to shop less this holiday,” he added.
Related: See the Final 2023 Seasonal Hiring Report here.
So far this season, Challenger has tracked 178,350 seasonal hiring plans (Table 2), which differ from the numbers provided by the BLS. Target announced the company would hire 100,000 workers for the holidays in their stores and fulfillment centers. This is the same hiring plan since 2020, when the company announced they would hire 130,000 at their stores and fulfillment centers.
UPDATED 9/20/2024: Challenger has tracked 334,850 seasonal hiring plans with the addition of Macy’s (31,500) and UPS (125,000). The firm will continuously update these numbers over the course of the season.
Bath & Body Works announced plans to hire 30,000 workers at stores in the U.S. and Canada, and 2,700 at its fulfillment centers.
Burlington Stores announced plans to hire 1,500 full-time and 23,000 part-time seasonal workers this season. Grocer Aldi’s will hire 13,000 this holiday season, while 1800FLOWERS announced hiring plans of 8,000 seasonal associates, in line with their efforts for six of the last eight years.
Meanwhile, Kohl’s is holding a recruitment event to hire “thousands of associates” at the company’s stores September 19-20th, from 11am-7pm local times. Other companies, including Gap Inc., GameStop, Crate & Barrel, and Macy’s are also hiring seasonal positions, but no official numbers have been announced, and therefore, Challenger has not tracked any numbers for them.
Challenger began tracking seasonal hiring announcements in 2012. Since 2015, Amazon has announced the most hiring plans of any employer every year, except for 2020, when Target held that prize. So far this season, Amazon India has announced 110,000 seasonal positions. It is unclear what hiring plans in the US will be, though the company is hiring hundreds at a fulfillment center in Cocoa, FL.
“The pandemic realigned need, and fluctuating consumer habits make it difficult for companies to determine how much staff is needed, both in-store and for online orders,” said Challenger.
What is Happening in Transportation and Warehousing?
Similarly to Retail, the Transportation and Warehousing sector saw huge disruptions in both supply chain and consumer behavior. According to the BLS, this sector added 552,300 seasonal employees in 2021, the most ever added. Last season, this sector added 336,400 seasonal workers.
“Transportation, shipping, and warehousing may not see the dramatic seasonal hiring spikes of previous years due to ongoing staffing stabilization and the increased use of automation. As companies navigate these evolving conditions, the flexibility to adapt to changing demand will be key in determining the final outcomes of seasonal hiring efforts. Ultimately, while the hiring landscape may be less aggressive than in recent years, it remains an essential part of the holiday economy,” said Challenger.
“Ultimately, while inflation and the labor market continue to cool, major seasonal employers are announcing significant hiring plans to meet anticipated consumer demand. This indicates that employers remain optimistic about the season, though some uncertainty looms around potential fluctuations in consumer spending and the economy,” he added.
